Genomic surveillance reveals dynamic shifts in the connectivity of COVID-19 epidemics (preprint)

The maturation of genomic surveillance in the past decade has enabled tracking of the emergence and spread of epidemics at an unprecedented level. During the COVID-19 pandemic, for example, genomic data revealed that local epidemics varied considerably in the frequency of SARS-CoV-2 lineage importation and persistence, likely due to a combination of COVID-19 restrictions and changing connectivity. Here, we show that local COVID-19 epidemics are driven by regional transmission, including across international boundaries, but can become increasingly connected to distant locations following the relaxation of public health interventions. By integrating genomic, mobility, and epidemiological data, we find abundant transmission occurring between both adjacent and distant locations, supported by dynamic mobility patterns. We find that changing connectivity significantly influences local COVID-19 incidence. Our findings demonstrate a complex meaning of 'local' when investigating connected epidemics and emphasize the importance of collaborative interventions for pandemic prevention and mitigation.

Sentinel Cards Provide Practical SARS-CoV-2 Monitoring in School Settings (preprint)

Accurate, high-resolution environmental monitoring of SARS-CoV-2 traces indoors through sentinel cards is a promising approach to help students safely return to in-person learning. Because SARS-CoV-2 RNA can persist for up to a week on several indoor surface types, there is a need for increased temporal resolution to determine whether consecutive surface positives arise from new infection events or continue to report past events. Cleaning sentinel cards after sampling would provide the needed resolution, but might interfere with assay performance. We tested the effect of three cleaning solutions (BZK wipes, wet wipes, RNase Away) at three different viral loads: "high" (4 x 104 GE/mL), "medium" (1 x 104 GE/mL), and "low" (2.5 x 103 GE/mL). RNAse Away, chosen as a positive control, was the most effective cleaning solution on all three viral loads. Wet wipes were found to be more effective than BZK wipes in the medium viral load condition. The low viral load condition was easily reset with all three cleaning solutions. These findings will enable temporal SARS-CoV-2 monitoring in indoor environments where transmission risk of the virus is high and the need to avoid individual-level sampling for privacy or compliance reasons exists.

Wastewater sequencing uncovers early, cryptic SARS-CoV-2 variant transmission (preprint)

As SARS-CoV-2 becomes an endemic pathogen, detecting emerging variants early is critical for public health interventions. Inferring lineage prevalence by clinical testing is infeasible at scale, especially in areas with limited resources, participation, or testing/sequencing capacity, which can also introduce biases. SARS-CoV-2 RNA concentration in wastewater successfully tracks regional infection dynamics and provides less biased abundance estimates than clinical testing. Tracking virus genomic sequences in wastewater would improve community prevalence estimates and detect emerging variants. However, two factors limit wastewater-based genomic surveillance: low-quality sequence data and inability to estimate relative lineage abundance in mixed samples. Here, we resolve these critical issues to perform a high-resolution, 295-day wastewater and clinical sequencing effort, in the controlled environment of a large university campus and the broader context of the surrounding county. We develop and deploy improved virus concentration protocols and deconvolution software that fully resolve multiple virus strains from wastewater. We detect emerging variants of concern up to 14 days earlier in wastewater samples, and identify multiple instances of virus spread not captured by clinical genomic surveillance. Our study provides a scalable solution for wastewater genomic surveillance that allows early detection of SARS-CoV-2 variants and identification of cryptic transmission.

SARS-CoV-2 Distribution in Residential Housing Suggests Contact Deposition and Correlates with Rothia (preprint)

Monitoring severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) on surfaces is emerging as an important tool for identifying past exposure to individuals shedding viral RNA. Our past work has demonstrated that SARS-CoV-2 reverse transcription-quantitative PCR (RT-qPCR) signals from surfaces can identify when infected individuals have touched surfaces such as Halloween candy, and when they have been present in hospital rooms or schools. However, the sensitivity and specificity of surface sampling as a method for detecting the presence of a SARS-CoV-2 positive individual, as well as guidance about where to sample, has not been established. To address these questions, and to test whether our past observations linking SARS-CoV-2 abundance to Rothia spp. in hospitals also hold in a residential setting, we performed detailed spatial sampling of three isolation housing units, assessing each sample for SARS-CoV-2 abundance by RT-qPCR, linking the results to 16S rRNA gene amplicon sequences to assess the bacterial community at each location and to the Cq value of the contemporaneous clinical test. Our results show that the highest SARS-CoV-2 load in this setting is on touched surfaces such as light switches and faucets, but detectable signal is present in many non-touched surfaces that may be more relevant in settings such as schools where mask wearing is enforced. As in past studies, the bacterial community predicts which samples are positive for SARS-CoV-2, with Rothia sp. showing a positive association. ImportanceSurface sampling for detecting SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), is increasingly being used to locate infected individuals. We tested which indoor surfaces had high versus low viral loads by collecting 381 samples from three residential units where infected individuals resided, and interpreted the results in terms of whether SARS-CoV-2 was likely transmitted directly (e.g. touching a light switch) or indirectly (e.g. by droplets or aerosols settling). We found highest loads where the subject touched the surface directly, although enough virus was detected on indirectly contacted surfaces to make such locations useful for sampling (e.g. in schools, where students do not touch the light switches and also wear masks so they have no opportunity to touch their face and then the object). We also documented links between the bacteria present in a sample and the SARS-CoV-2 virus, consistent with earlier studies.

Comparison of heat-inactivated and infectious SARS-CoV-2 across indoor surface materials shows comparable RT-qPCR viral signal intensity and persistence (preprint)

Environmental monitoring in public spaces can be used to identify surfaces contaminated by persons with COVID-19 and inform appropriate infection mitigation responses. Research groups have reported detection of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) on surfaces days or weeks after the virus has been deposited, making it difficult to estimate when an infected individual may have shed virus onto a SARS-CoV-2 positive surface, which in turn complicates the process of establishing effective quarantine measures. In this study, we determined that reverse transcription-quantitative polymerase chain reaction (RT-qPCR) detection of viral RNA from heat-inactivated particles experiences minimal decay over seven days of monitoring on eight out of nine surfaces tested. The properties of the studied surfaces result in RT-qPCR signatures that can be segregated into two material categories, rough and smooth, where smooth surfaces have a lower limit of detection. RT-qPCR signal intensity (average quantification cycle (Cq) can be correlated to surface viral load using only one linear regression model per material category. The same experiment was performed with infectious viral particles on one surface from each category, with essentially identical results. The stability of RT-qPCR viral signal demonstrates the need to clean monitored surfaces after sampling to establish temporal resolution. Additionally, these findings can be used to minimize the number of materials and timepoints tested and allow for the use of heat-inactivated viral particles when optimizing environmental monitoring methods.

Automated, miniaturized, and scalable screening of healthcare workers, first responders, and students for SARS-CoV-2 in San Diego County (preprint)

Background: Successful containment strategies for SARS-CoV-2, the causative virus of the COVID-19 pandemic, have involved widespread population testing that identifies infections early and enables rapid contact tracing. In this study, we developed a rapid and inexpensive RT-qPCR testing pipeline for population-level SARS-CoV-2 detection, and used this pipeline to establish a clinical laboratory dedicated to COVID-19 testing at the University of California San Diego (UCSD) with a processing capacity of 6,000 samples per day and next-day result turnaround times. Methods and findings: Using this pipeline, we screened 6,786 healthcare workers and first responders, and 21,220 students, faculty, and staff from UCSD. Additionally, we screened 6,031 preschool-grade 12 students and staff from public and private schools across San Diego County that remained fully or partially open for in-person teaching during the pandemic. Between April 17, 2020 and February 5, 2021, participants provided 161,582 nasal swabs that were tested for the presence of SARS-CoV-2. Overall, 752 positive tests were obtained, yielding a test positivity rate of 0.47%. While the presence of symptoms was significantly correlated with higher viral load, most of the COVID-19 positive participants who participated in symptom surveys were asymptomatic at the time of testing. The positivity rate among preschool-grade 12 schools that remained open for in-person teaching was similar to the positivity rate at UCSD and lower than that of San Diego County, with the children in private schools being less likely to test positive than the adults at these schools. Conclusions: Most schools across the United States have been closed for in-person learning for much of the 2020-2021 school year, and their safe reopening is a national priority. However, as there are no vaccines against SARS-CoV-2 currently available to the majority of school-aged children, the traditional strategies of mandatory masking, physical distancing, and repeated viral testing of students and staff remain key components of risk mitigation in these settings. The data presented here suggest that the safety measures and repeated testing actions taken by participating healthcare and educational facilities were effective in preventing outbreaks, and that a similar combination of risk-mitigation strategies and repeated testing may be successfully adopted by other healthcare and educational systems.